Saturday, May 9, 2020
An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, Section 10 Essay
In Humeââ¬â¢s 1748 publication: An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding , Section 10 is titled Of Miracles. This section is an extended argument against the veracity of miracles. In response to Hume, Richard Price published Four Dissertations in 1768. In Dissertation IV, The Importance of Christianity, the Nature of Historical Evidence and Miracles, Price outlines a Bayesian argument against Humeââ¬â¢s conclusions that miracles cannot ever occur. My thesis is that Priceââ¬â¢s Bayesian argument, arguably the first use of Bayesââ¬â¢ Theorem to challenge another published argument fails. It fails on three fronts: it mischaracterizes Humeââ¬â¢s argument as non-conditional; it improperly employs a Bayesian model test case of newspaper reporting; and it does not consider the effects of the preliminary seeding of probabilities for its Bayesian model of miracles. 1.0 Humeââ¬â¢s Argument Against Miracles Humeââ¬â¢s argument is multi-faceted but most commentators (Millican, Earman) agree that the key summary occurs in paragraph 13. The plain consequence is (and ââ¬Ëtis a general maxim worthy of our attention) ââ¬Å"That no testimony is sufficient to establish a miracle, unless the testimony be of such a kind, that its falsehood would be more miraculous, than the fact, which it endeavours to establishâ⬠¦Ã¢â¬ (E 10.13) This first quote establishes a simple probability model of a miracle occurring (Miracle Happening: MH) given a true testimony about that event (True Testimony: TT) and Hume argues that it must be greaterShow MoreRelatedWhat Is The Problem Of Freewill?1495 Words à |à 6 Pagesprovides us with a compelling argument for determinism. Though a libertarian, Richard Taylor justifies the stance that humans assume universal causation without realising. In ââ¬Å"Freedom and Determinismâ⬠in Metaphysics, he gives the example of a person who hears a sudden noise and instantly tries to find the cause. 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